Scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets were down 14.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, while regional day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7%. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the figures in its third-quarter 2026 assessment, which covers January to September and compares activity with the corresponding periods in 2025.
Across the first nine months of 2026, gross scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% year on year. In the third quarter, exchanges increased 8.6% from the previous quarter, but remained below the same period of 2025. Day-ahead trading on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh during the quarter, according to the assessment.
The figures show regional organised-market activity expanding while scheduled exchanges with the EU remained below their 2025 levels. The Secretariat noted that the trading changes cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM: generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity also influence cross-border flows.
Price gaps and changing export flows
Across eight Western Balkan-EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The assessment said a wholesale price spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may not leave an attractive margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Montenegro’s scheduled exports to Italy increased approximately 80%. The differing movements show that CBAM exposure does not alone determine commercial flows; hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also affect them.
The assessment said traders’ calculations increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. Actual electricity-import costs depend on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions. Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables in cross-border trade.
CBAM costs in commercial calculations
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at EUR 82.32/t CO2, up from EUR 75.28/t CO2 in the second quarter. The price and the applicable emissions methodology are among the factors relevant to the costs of electricity imports, alongside eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
The Secretariat said Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and electricity that can be sold profitably to EU customers. A potential structural discount may emerge in exporting markets where generation is carbon-intensive or low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge identified in the assessment is to preserve efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market where the regulatory treatment of carbon can determine whether a cross-border transaction is profitable.
