Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated the country’s 2026 exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at 140.2 million euros, with iron and steel accounting for the largest share. Electricity adds 21.8 million euros to the estimate and has different compliance rules, giving Serbia a different exposure mix from the EU-wide pattern of CBAM-coded imports.
Steel and aluminium together made up about 82.1% of the value of EU imports of CBAM-coded goods in 2025. Steel imports were valued at 60.95 billion euros and aluminium at 30.34 billion euros, against a total of 111.23 billion euros for all CBAM-coded goods. The two metals combined were worth 91.29 billion euros.
The 82.1% share measures imports from all non-EU origins, including exempt suppliers; it is not the proportion of Serbian exports covered by CBAM. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 12% of the country’s exports to the EU fall within the mechanism’s scope.
Serbia’s exposure spans metals and electricity
In the 2026 baseline assessment, iron and steel account for 89.1 million euros of estimated exposure, followed by electricity at 21.8 million euros and aluminium at 19.5 million euros. Cement and fertilisers make up the remainder. Steel producers carry Serbia’s largest estimated cost, while electricity is also an important part of the country’s trade with the EU.
Trade composition figures based on 2024 exports offer a separate measure of the covered trade. Steel represented 4.5 percentage points of Serbian exports to the EU, aluminium 2.0 points and electricity 4.7 points. Together, the CBAM-related share was approximately 11.7%, with metals representing roughly 56% of that share.
The Serbian export figures and EU import values refer to different years and denominators, so they are not interchangeable annual rankings. Nor does one compliance approach fit every product: the rules and commercial considerations for a coated-steel coil sold to a processor differ from those for a megawatt-hour of Serbian electricity entering Hungary’s power system.
Plant emissions and customs codes shape costs
For covered steel items, the CBAM charge is not a simple surcharge on invoice value. It depends on a plant’s direct process emissions, its verified production route, eligible input materials and the EU free-allocation adjustment. Importers may use regulatory default values if actual emissions data are unavailable.
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance has warned that default factors may exceed actual domestic emissions in some cases. That could penalise lower-emission Serbian installations that cannot substantiate their performance with actual data. The cost for each covered product therefore depends on its plant-level emissions and the relevant product information.
The initial emissions scope for covered aluminium products under the current CBAM framework applies in 2026 and focuses on direct emissions. Producers may still face commercial pressure to disclose electricity sources and indirect footprints to support customers’ decarbonisation strategies. A buyer’s preference for low-carbon electricity can extend beyond emissions included in the legal CBAM certificate calculation, and the two should not be conflated in pricing.
Serbian producers compete with suppliers from China, Türkiye and India, as well as lower-carbon plants inside the EU. Their ability to retain customers depends on actual emissions, data assurance and product economics for the relevant CN8 code, not on the EU-wide metals share alone.
The immediate policy priorities identified for Serbia are to establish a credible plant-level steel emissions baseline, map mill products accurately to EU customs codes and treat electricity trade separately. Those priorities reflect the distinct requirements of industrial products and power exports rather than a single approach to the country’s CBAM exposure.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer
