The increase in the EU’s CBAM certificate price to €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ in the third quarter is raising the carbon cost attached to electricity exports from most Western Balkan markets and increasing the difference between carbon-intensive generation and renewable power able to demonstrate actual emissions.
The Q3 price is 9.4% higher than the €75.28/tCO₂ applied in the second quarter. The increase makes the carbon component a more significant factor in electricity trading between Western Balkan countries and neighbouring EU markets.
The European Commission calculates CBAM certificate prices from EU ETS auction prices, using quarterly calculations during 2026 and moving to weekly calculations from 2027.
National electricity factors produce different border costs
Applying the current national electricity default factors to the Q3 certificate price produces indicative CBAM costs of approximately €94.50/MWh for Bosnia and Herzegovina, €85.70/MWh for Serbia, €80.59/MWh for Montenegro and €73.02/MWh for North Macedonia.
The underlying default factors differ substantially across the region. According to the Energy Community, they stand at 1.148 tCO₂/MWh for Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1.041 for Serbia, 0.979 for Montenegro and 0.887 for North Macedonia.
The regional comparison also has a clear outlier. Albania’s electricity default factor is zero, meaning that electricity imported from Albania does not incur a default-value CBAM charge under the current methodology.
Carbon costs become part of electricity economics
The resulting differences are increasing the divergence in the carbon costs associated with electricity exported from individual Western Balkan markets.
For cross-border traders, CBAM therefore extends beyond an environmental compliance calculation. The carbon component increasingly forms part of the wholesale electricity trading spread, affecting the economics of moving power from lower-priced Western Balkan markets into the EU.
The competitive position of individual exporters consequently depends not only on the underlying electricity price, but also on the emissions factor applied to the electricity and the resulting CBAM cost.
