More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the European Union fall within the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. These industries account for around 4.5% of employment.
Across the EU, imports matching CBAM-related customs codes were worth €111.23 billion in 2025, measured by the border value of the goods, not the value of certificates due. The total includes imports from exempt source countries; excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion of potentially relevant trade before product, importer and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports under those codes, and aluminium for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the full import total, but its trade is concentrated along corridors connecting Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other CBAM goods shipped from Serbia.
Projected exposure and calculation assumptions
The Finance Ministry estimates Serbia’s CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026. The estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. It is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, although the rules could affect supplier costs and access to EU customers.
Under the ministry’s baseline scenario, the projected exposure reaches €161.4 million by 2029. The calculations use a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. They do not represent invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions data and commercial terms
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants hold the formal reporting and certificate obligations, but related commercial costs may be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses. Costs may also be passed on to downstream processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Negotiations will partly depend on whether plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, production data for individual installations and emissions evidence early enough for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that fail to provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance is competitive. Lower-carbon production has commercial value only when emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted in the importer’s declaration. For Serbian exporters, the immediate test is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer
