Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led imports of Serbian aluminium. The country rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to 2025 trade data, and show why EU-wide import patterns do not identify Serbia’s main buyers.
Steel trade led by central European buyers
EU imports from Serbia in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, or approximately €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate. Poland was the biggest direct EU market, with imports worth €125.3 million, followed by Czechia at €77.8 million and Hungary at €71.9 million.
Italy imported €53.4 million of Serbian HS72 goods, while Slovenia imported €10.0 million. Germany’s direct imports were €4.9 million, substantially below what its prominence in Serbia’s broader bilateral exports might suggest. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified for either country.
The EU-wide ranking measures imports under CBAM codes from all extra-EU origins, not Serbia-specific purchases. Italy accounted for 17.6% of their value in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each represented about 12.7%. The overall figures cover steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods.
Aluminium destinations differ
EU imports from Serbia in the HS76 aluminium and articles category totalled $505.7 million in 2025, approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million.
Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million. Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million. Croatia and Romania also followed the three leading markets, but no values were specified for them. Slovenia’s position as the second-largest aluminium market contrasts with its €10.0 million of direct Serbian steel imports.
The direct-import figures are indicative euro conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average exchange rate of €1 = $1.1300. HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level product categories, and include goods such as ferrous and aluminium scrap that are outside CBAM Annex I coverage. The totals indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline, but do not measure precisely the value of Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales; an eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match is needed to determine whether an individual delivery is covered.
Customs destination does not identify the final customer
Customs clearance in a port or distribution hub does not establish where a material is ultimately consumed. The importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distribution company rather than the final industrial customer, and the party paying customs-related costs may not be the purchaser determining a material’s long-term competitiveness.
A Serbian steel coil entering Poland could later be rolled, coated or shaped for machinery sold in Germany. Aluminium reported at Slovenia’s border could be shipped onward as a semi-finished product or processed in several countries, so the reporting country totals do not identify the final customers. The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, rather than showing that the largest EU customs markets buy every Serbian product.
Steel suppliers should engage with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary, while aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France. Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as the declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications. If importers use conservative default emissions values while awaiting verified plant information, purchase prices could include a carbon premium greater than actual producer emissions would justify. Documented production and emissions information that travels with the goods can help exporters defend market share.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer
