Serbian exports of iron and steel and aluminium reached different leading EU markets in 2025, a distinction relevant to exporters and buyers assessing trade in goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Poland was the largest direct EU market for Serbian iron and steel, while Germany led imports of Serbian aluminium. EU-wide rankings for CBAM-code imports do not show which countries are the main buyers of Serbia’s covered-sector exports.
EU exports from Serbia in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, equivalent to approximately €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate. Poland imported €125.3 million, followed by Czechia at €77.8 million and Hungary at €71.9 million.
Italy imported €53.4 million of Serbian HS72 goods, and Slovenia imported €10.0 million. Germany’s direct imports stood at €4.9 million, well below what its position in Serbia’s broader bilateral exports might suggest. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified.
Across all extra-EU origins, Italy accounted for 17.6% of the value of EU imports under CBAM codes in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each represented about 12.7%. These rankings cover steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods, and do not show Serbia-specific purchases.
Aluminium trade and the limits of customs data
EU imports from Serbia in HS76, covering aluminium and articles, totalled $505.7 million in 2025, or approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million.
Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million; Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million. Croatia and Romania also followed the three leading markets, but no values were specified. The euro figures are indicative conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average rate of €1 = $1.1300.
HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level categories that include products such as ferrous and aluminium scrap outside CBAM Annex I coverage. They indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline, rather than the precise value of Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales. Establishing whether an individual delivery is covered requires an eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match.
Customs clearance does not establish where a product is ultimately consumed. The importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distributor, rather than the industrial customer. A Serbian steel coil imported into Poland could be rolled, coated or shaped before being used in machinery sold in Germany; aluminium recorded at Slovenia’s border could also move onward as a semi-finished product or be processed in several countries.
Buyer relationships and emissions information
The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, but does not mean the largest EU customs markets buy every Serbian product. Steel suppliers should engage with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary, while aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France.
Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as the declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications. The party paying customs-related costs may not determine a material’s long-term competitiveness. If importers use conservative default emissions values while awaiting verified plant data, purchase prices could include a carbon premium greater than the producer’s actual emissions warrant. Exporters seeking to defend market share need documented production and emissions information that travels with the goods.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer
