Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, as exporters face rising demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The projection is not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM-related costs could affect supplier contracts and access to EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes accounted for €111.23 billion of extra-EU imports, measured as the border value of goods rather than the value of certificates owed. The total includes imports from exempt source countries; after those origins are excluded, about €94.74 billion remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel made up €60.95 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, while aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the aggregate, but trade is concentrated in corridors connecting Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other regulated products shipped from Serbia.
Exposure reaches beyond large producers
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to sectors covered by the mechanism.
Industries connected to CBAM-covered sectors account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, making compliance relevant to wider manufacturing as well as a handful of large producers. The ministry’s baseline scenario puts exposure at €161.4 million in 2029, up from approximately €140.2 million in 2026.
The 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. They are projections, not invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions evidence shapes contracts
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Commercial costs can nevertheless be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers.
Negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere. The key commercial test for Serbian steel, metalworking and power businesses is whether they can retain EU customers, rather than whether Serbia can influence the wider EU carbon market.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer
