Serbia’s electricity default factor of 1.041 tCO₂/MWh corresponds to an indicative CBAM carbon cost of approximately €85.70/MWh at the EU’s Q3 certificate price of €82.32/tCO₂.
The implied cost has increased from approximately €78.37/MWh in Q2, adding to the carbon component of Serbian electricity exports into EU markets.
Lignite generation drives national factor
Serbia’s relatively high national default reflects its large lignite-fired generation fleet, even though the country’s electricity system also includes substantial hydropower, wind generation and growing solar capacity.
This creates a distinction between the emissions intensity assigned to Serbian electricity at national level and the actual emissions associated with an individual renewable project.
For Serbian wind and solar developers, the increase in the CBAM certificate price consequently raises the commercial importance of qualifying for the actual-emissions methodology.
Electricity exported under the national default can inherit Serbia’s 1.041 tCO₂/MWh factor even when the underlying megawatt-hour was generated by a renewable facility with substantially lower plant-level emissions.
Evidence can affect project economics
The carbon position can be materially different where the same electricity is supported by an eligible power-purchase agreement, appropriate hourly metering, accepted cross-border nominations and accredited verification.
As the gap between Serbia’s national default and renewable project emissions becomes more financially significant, the ability to demonstrate actual emissions can increasingly affect the economics of individual projects.
For developers, that difference can feed into PPA pricing, project valuations and financing assumptions, particularly as higher EU carbon prices increase the potential cost attached to electricity assessed using the national default.
