The higher CBAM carbon price does not alter the role of guarantees of origin (GOs) in renewable electricity markets.
GOs remain renewable-energy certificates and could gain additional value if the EU moves towards broader recognition of certificates from qualifying Energy Community markets.
However, they do not replace the physical and contractual evidence required under the current CBAM actual-emissions methodology.
Renewable Certificates Alone Cannot Avoid Default Costs
The distinction has direct commercial implications. A renewable generator may hold valuable certificates associated with its electricity output while the physical power imported into the EU remains subject to a high national CBAM default factor.
The two instruments therefore serve different functions: GOs document renewable attributes, while CBAM evidence must establish the eligibility and traceability of the physical electricity under the applicable methodology.
The strongest renewable export product for the EU market may consequently combine recognised renewable attributes with CBAM-verifiable physical electricity.
