Albania enters the definitive CBAM phase from a markedly different position from most of its Western Balkan neighbours.
Its hydro-dominated electricity system carries a zero default emissions factor, giving Albanian electricity exports a significant carbon-cost advantage over power originating in more carbon-intensive regional systems.
Zero Default Already Shifts Regional Trade
The impact was visible during the first quarter, when the Energy Community reported a sharp increase in Albania-to-Greece commercial schedules as regional electricity trading adjusted following the start of CBAM’s definitive phase.
Albania effectively emerged as a zero-default route into the EU market, while exports from systems subject to higher carbon-intensity defaults faced greater commercial pressure.
For Albanian renewable generators, this reduces the immediate economic incentive to pursue the actual-emissions route solely to avoid the national default factor.
At the same time, the zero-default treatment gives Albania a strategic position as regional electricity trading becomes increasingly sensitive to carbon costs.
The extent of that advantage will depend on hydrological conditions, domestic electricity demand, interconnection capacity and the continued application of Albania’s treatment under the EU default methodology.
