Serbian steel and aluminium producers face changing competitive conditions in the European Union as Asian steel suppliers expand their presence, EU import restrictions tighten and carbon reporting becomes increasingly important to the cost of cross-border trade.
EUROFER’s first-half 2026 figures showed Chinese steel imports rising 40% year on year and Indonesian shipments increasing 70%, while total EU steel imports declined by 5%. Türkiye remained the EU’s largest supplier of finished steel as Serbian exporters navigated weaker demand and a new EU steel trade measure introduced in July.
For Serbian metals companies, maintaining access to European customers increasingly requires more than competitive factory-gate prices. Import tariffs, customs requirements and CBAM liabilities all influence the final delivered cost.
Serbian steel and aluminium supply chains face different requirements
Serbia’s steel industry includes HBIS Serbia’s integrated works in Smederevo and producers and processors such as Metalfer Steel Mill. The country’s aluminium industry includes Impol Seval, alongside companies transforming rolled metal into industrial products.
CBAM exposure depends on the precise customs classification of exported goods and the rules applicable to each product. Operating in the metals sector does not automatically mean that every exported product falls within the mechanism’s scope.
For steel, the carbon liability depends on the production route, product category, precursor inputs and verified direct embedded emissions. European customers relying on applicable default values may face different calculated costs from those importing material supported by validated, installation-specific emissions data.
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price of €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent makes accurate emissions calculations an important element of commercial planning. A generic carbon surcharge cannot capture the differences between products, production facilities and applicable calculation rules.
Steel quotas create an additional cost exposure
Serbian steel exporters must also account for the EU’s annual duty-free steel import quota of approximately 18.3 million tonnes and the 50% out-of-quota duty applying to the relevant steel categories.
The practical impact on an individual shipment depends on the applicable country and product allocations, customs origin and remaining quota capacity. These factors can have a greater immediate effect on import costs than a change in the quarterly CBAM certificate reference price.
Exporters and their European customers therefore need to assess tariff exposure and carbon liabilities separately. A shipment’s eligibility for preferential tariff treatment does not, by itself, determine its CBAM obligations.
Aluminium requires a different emissions assessment
The accounting framework for aluminium differs from that for steel. Aluminium production is particularly exposed to electricity costs, but indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not automatically included in the current CBAM charge for aluminium.
Direct process emissions, upstream inputs covered by the applicable rules and correct product classification remain central to determining the carbon liability. This distinction is relevant for factories promoting products as low-carbon because they purchase renewable electricity: electricity procurement alone does not establish the emissions value used for CBAM calculations.
Serbian aluminium exporters consequently need to distinguish between the emissions information relevant to their broader environmental claims and the data required under the mechanism’s specific accounting rules.
Proposed downstream expansion could widen product coverage
Serbian manufacturers of metal-intensive finished goods also need to follow the proposed extension of CBAM to selected downstream products from 2028. Some manufactured goods not currently covered could enter the mechanism, while other products are already within its scope.
The final list remains subject to EU negotiations following amendments supported by the European Parliament in September 2026. Until the scope and detailed requirements are settled, manufacturers need to assess exposure against the applicable rules for each product rather than assume that all downstream metal goods will receive identical treatment.
Traceable emissions data become a commercial requirement
For Serbian steel and aluminium exporters, a reliable compliance record needs to connect material origin, production-facility information, emissions calculations and the allocation of products to EU customers.
Accurate documentation and verification can help buyers distinguish between suppliers and calculate their obligations more precisely. Combined with competitive pricing and dependable deliveries, this evidence will increasingly influence the ability of Serbian metals producers to maintain their position in European supply chains.
