Türkiye remained the European Union’s largest supplier of finished steel in the first half of 2026, despite a substantial decline in deliveries and stronger competition from Asian producers. The changing trade environment is increasing the importance of emissions verification, tariff-quota availability and the total cost of supplying European customers.
According to EUROFER, Türkiye accounted for 15.7% of EU finished-steel imports during the first six months of 2026. Its shipments fell 16% year on year, while deliveries from China rose 40% and those from Indonesia increased 70%.
The decline occurred as the broader EU steel import market contracted. Türkiye’s lower shipment volumes therefore do not establish that carbon-related costs caused a loss of competitiveness across all steel products.
Production routes and verified emissions shape competitiveness
Türkiye benefits from its geographical proximity to European markets, shorter transport times and established customer relationships. Some Turkish steelmaking facilities also use electric-arc furnaces, which can have different emissions profiles from other production routes.
However, electric-arc-furnace capacity alone does not determine a product’s CBAM liability. The calculation depends on the specific steel product, the scrap and other precursor materials used, furnace operations, direct process emissions and the applicable production benchmark. Electricity procurement also affects industrial costs and carbon reporting.
For European buyers, the availability of reliable emissions information is an additional consideration when comparing suppliers. Imports assessed using applicable default emissions values may face higher calculated carbon liabilities than products supported by verified actual data.
A Turkish exporter with incomplete traceability could consequently face a less favourable cost position than a competitor elsewhere, even if its production facility potentially operates more efficiently. The commercial comparison increasingly depends on documented product-level emissions rather than country of origin alone.
EU steel quotas add a separate trade barrier
Steel-specific trade measures present another challenge for Turkish exporters. From July 2026, the EU’s annual duty-free steel import quota was limited to approximately 18.3 million tonnes, with a 50% out-of-quota duty applying to imports exceeding the relevant allowances.
Türkiye’s established commercial relationship with the EU does not eliminate the need to determine whether an individual steel product qualifies under the applicable country-specific allocation or whether sufficient quota capacity remains available.
Quota access and CBAM exposure affect different components of import costs. European customers must therefore consider both the tariff treatment of a shipment and its carbon-related liability when comparing offers from Turkish mills and competing international suppliers.
Proposed downstream CBAM rules extend the compliance challenge
The potential expansion of CBAM to selected downstream products could extend emissions-related obligations beyond basic steel to Turkish manufacturers of metal components, equipment and fabricated goods.
The European Commission has proposed extending the mechanism to selected downstream products from 2028, while the European Parliament supported a broader product list in September 2026. The final product scope, implementation date and detailed rules for accounting for precursor emissions remain subject to negotiations.
For Turkish industrial groups supplying both basic steel and finished products, the proposed changes increase the importance of maintaining connected records covering the producing mill, product classification, embedded emissions, downstream processing and the EU importer.
Supply contracts increasingly require emissions documentation
European customers are likely to place greater emphasis on data quality and verification when negotiating purchasing contracts. Contractual provisions may address the allocation of carbon costs, the accuracy of emissions declarations and remedies where submitted information proves incorrect.
These requirements affect the commercial relationship between steel producers, downstream manufacturers and importers, particularly where the final CBAM liability depends on installation-specific information or the treatment of precursor materials.
Türkiye retains its logistical advantages and leading position by finished-steel import volume. Maintaining that position will increasingly depend on the verified carbon-adjusted delivered cost of its products, alongside transport efficiency, product specifications and access to available tariff quotas.
