Electricity trade between the European Union and the Western Balkans contracted in the second quarter, while volumes traded through regional day-ahead exchanges increased, according to data from the Energy Community Secretariat.
EU commercial exports to the Western Balkans reached 4,271 GWh, down 14% year on year, while electricity flows in the opposite commercial direction declined 16% to 3,223 GWh. Combined cross-border trade stood at approximately 7.49 TWh during the quarter.
The Western Balkans consequently recorded a net import position of about 1,048 GWh, reversing the net-export position recorded during the first quarter. Gross electricity trade for the first half of the year was approximately 19% below the level recorded a year earlier.
Regional exchanges record stronger trading activity
The decline in EU-border electricity trade occurred alongside higher activity on organised Western Balkan power markets.
According to the Secretariat’s July briefing, day-ahead trading volumes across four Western Balkan exchanges increased 19% to 2.70 TWh. The figures indicate different trends in domestic organised-market participation and electricity transactions across the EU border.
Montel reported that the contraction in cross-border trade continued even as wholesale price spreads narrowed. The Energy Community Secretariat also reported that transmission capacity on major corridors continued to be allocated at levels close to full utilisation.
The combination indicates that lower scheduled electricity volumes were not simply the result of a lack of demand for cross-border transmission capacity.
Carbon costs add uncertainty to cross-border margins
The weaker EU-Balkan trade is consistent with CBAM-related costs and uncertainty affecting electricity trading decisions, but the quarterly data do not isolate CBAM as the cause of the decline.
The Secretariat specifically cautioned against attributing the market movements to a single factor. Hydrology, generation availability and changes in EU electricity-market prices also affected conditions during the quarter.
For traders, a narrower wholesale price differential does not necessarily restore the economics of a cross-border transaction when the remaining margin must also absorb uncertain carbon costs and CBAM-related administrative requirements.
At the same time, increased turnover on regional day-ahead exchanges can occur alongside weaker economics for electricity exports across the EU border.
The second-quarter data therefore show contrasting developments: organised day-ahead trading in the Western Balkans expanded, while electricity trade across the EU boundary declined.
