Commercially scheduled electricity exchanges across borders with EU member states fell 25% in the first quarter, as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) made evidence for actual-emissions treatment a key issue for Western Balkan power exports. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the decline; day-ahead prices in Energy Community contracting parties averaged €30 per megawatt-hour below prices in neighbouring EU markets.
The price gap and lower exchanges occurred despite strong hydropower availability. Albania’s default electricity emission factor was zero and its exports continued, while comparable hydropower exports from markets such as Montenegro were sharply constrained. The reported correlations point to a changed commercial environment but do not establish that CBAM alone caused movements in flows or prices.
Hydrology, transmission constraints, market arrangements and fuel costs also affect electricity trading. Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Albania have different generation mixes, network configurations and market-coupling trajectories, so the commercial effects vary across the region.
For exporters, the central question is whether evidence for actual-emissions treatment can support a specific electricity import into the EU. Guarantees of origin, power-purchase agreements and generation measurements may help document renewable output, but need to connect to the legally required physical-trade and verification records. Without that evidentiary chain, an EU importer may face country-level default emissions values even for low-emission generation.
The EU is considering changes to its electricity methodology within a broader CBAM downstream and anti-circumvention legislative package. The Council set its position in June 2026, and the European Parliament adopted amendments in September 2026. Final agreement remained pending in early November 2026, leaving power traders to price under the current regime while monitoring possible revisions on nomination, physical connection and market integration.
Cross-border sales can affect wholesale price spreads, producer revenues, the competitiveness of industrial electricity buyers and the financeability of renewable projects. A credible regional dataset would track day-ahead prices, border capacities, nomination volumes, actual generation by technology, default emissions and documented CBAM treatment, and link the EU importer to any identifiable industrial off-taker. The difference between electricity traded and electricity provably compliant under CBAM is now a material commercial variable.
