Egyptian hot-rolled coil could face a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) cost of approximately 24 euros per tonne with acceptable verified emissions data, compared with approximately 228 euros using default values, according to analysis presented in Cairo on 4 November. Nicole Voigt, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group, presented the figures at the 19th Arab Steel Summit. They are scenario estimates, not customs charges established for every Egyptian shipment.
The model examined steel made via a direct-reduced-iron and electric-arc-furnace route. It put the difference between the default-value and verified-data estimates at 204 euros per tonne, and cited a European reference carbon cost of around 36 euros per tonne for comparable hot-rolled coil production under its assumptions. The analysis said the gap highlights the commercial importance of installation-level emissions accounting: verified records could improve delivered-price competitiveness for exporters whose actual emissions are significantly below the regulatory default.
Final liability depends on the product’s CN classification, relevant emissions, year of import, applicable EU Emissions Trading System adjustments and eligible deductions. The presentation also said the interaction of EU import quotas, tariffs and CBAM was becoming decisive for Middle Eastern and North African steel exporters.
Under proposed EU steel tariff-rate quota allocations, more than 60% of historical Egyptian steel exports to the bloc could be accommodated, compared with less than 30% of historical exports from Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. Those figures model coverage of past exports under proposed arrangements; they are not shares of total EU steel imports or evidence of actual 2026 shipment changes.
The presentation said the same principles apply to Serbian and Southeast European steelmakers: lower emissions may improve carbon competitiveness, but trade restrictions can prevent producers from turning that advantage into additional EU sales. It also said banks assessing industrial investments should weigh actual-versus-default emissions sensitivity alongside customs duties, quota access, manufacturing costs and freight. Independent emissions verification could have substantial commercial value, while carbon efficiency alone would not guarantee access to the European market.
