New modelling estimates that Chinese industrial exporters could face more than €1.3 billion in annual carbon-border costs when the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reaches full implementation. The long-term scenario concerns emissions-intensive products entering European markets, particularly where suppliers continue using high-carbon production routes.
The forecast is not an assessment of charges currently payable on imports made during 2026. Actual CBAM liabilities depend on the applicable year, product classification, embedded emissions and eligible deductions for carbon prices paid abroad. Costs are phased in alongside changes to free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).
The modelling indicates that lower-carbon production could improve the relative competitiveness of Chinese steel suppliers. That potential benefit depends on investment in production technology and suppliers’ ability to provide emissions data that meet European verification requirements.
Differences in delivered prices between Chinese suppliers and producers facing alternative emissions and trade-cost conditions could affect European industrial buyers. But any change in Chinese steel’s share of EU imports would also depend on steel tariff-rate quotas, anti-dumping duties, demand, freight costs and competing supply. The modelling does not establish that CBAM has already reduced Chinese steel imports into Europe by any specific amount.
For exporters in Serbia and Southeast Europe, the findings point to the need to compare actual emissions and total landed costs rather than assume that a published carbon-price exposure applies uniformly across suppliers. The modelling provides insufficient publicly available detail for a reliable country-by-CN8 customs cost table based on its aggregate forecast.
The annual estimate illustrates the potential long-term scale of China’s CBAM exposure, but the study assumptions require further verification before the figure is used in bankable forecasts.
