Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, even as regional day-ahead trading grew, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s third-quarter 2026 assessment. The data show organised-market activity expanding while cross-border flows remained below 2025 levels, amid carbon-related costs for electricity transactions with the European Union.
Scheduled exchanges were 14.3% lower year on year in the third quarter, but recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter. The assessment covers electricity trading during the quarter and compares the first nine months of 2026 with the corresponding period in 2025.
Day-ahead trade expands as carbon costs rise
Day-ahead volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the third quarter, up 26.7% year on year. The increase across the four organised electricity markets contrasted with lower scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets.
Across eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier, the assessment found. Wider price spreads do not necessarily make cross-border trading profitable, as carbon obligations and delivery costs can reduce the commercial margin.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The actual cost of electricity imports depends on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Traders increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. A spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer offer an attractive margin once those costs and obligations are included.
Export patterns differ across routes
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary declined 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets, the assessment reported. Scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy moved in the opposite direction, increasing approximately 80%.
The contrasting routes show that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows on its own. Generation, demand, hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also influence exchanges, while wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables.
For Western Balkan generators, the assessment points to a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and output that can economically reach EU customers. A potential structural discount may affect exporting markets with carbon-intensive generation mixes, or where low-carbon production does not meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the challenge is preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market in which carbon rules can determine whether cross-border transactions are profitable. The observed changes cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM, as generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity also affect trading patterns.
