EU imports of iron and steel products and aluminium reached €91.29 billion in 2025, equal to 82% of imports under current Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) codes. The concentration puts metal supply chains serving construction, engineering, vehicles and equipment manufacturing at the centre of the mechanism’s likely commercial effects. The 82% figure is a share of trade value, not carbon emissions or future CBAM certificate payments.
Iron and steel products covered by Chapters 72 and 73 represented €60.95 billion and 57.73 million tonnes. Aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion and 9.14 million tonnes. Their different value per tonne reflects product mix and market pricing, while environmental costs depend on production route and installation-specific emissions.
A tonne of high-grade manufactured metal is not equivalent to a tonne of primary or semi-finished material for all commercial or emissions purposes. The figures therefore do not determine the exposure of individual products or suppliers.
China was the leading non-EU origin for CBAM-covered steel by mass in 2025, supplying 9.07 million tonnes. Türkiye supplied 7.43 million tonnes, the second-largest amount among listed non-EU origins, and Russia supplied 5.17 million tonnes, the third-largest.
Covered metal can reach EU rolling mills, service centres, pipe producers, building-products suppliers and component factories. The final buyer of transformed goods need not be the importer of record, making contracts and traceability important for identifying which business absorbs a change in carbon costs.
Exposure depends on products and supply contracts
EUROFER’s October 2026 outlook said EU crude steel production fell to a record 125.8 million tonnes in 2025. It expected apparent steel consumption growth of only 0.1% in 2026. Weakness in the European steel market cannot be attributed to CBAM alone: global overcapacity, energy costs, demand and other trade measures also matter.
The phase-out of free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) means domestic and imported producers face evolving carbon economics over time. For metal-intensive manufacturers, useful CBAM analysis combines customs classifications with production routes and supplier disclosures.
Metal buyers should compare like-for-like products, distinguish direct from indirect exposure and check whether contracts allow carbon costs to pass down the supply chain. Although steel and aluminium dominate import value, competitive outcomes will be determined at individual mills, smelters and processors, as well as through industrial purchasing agreements.
