European aluminium buyers are reassessing sourcing strategies as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces carbon-related obligations for covered imports from countries including Canada and Mozambique, while originating products from Norway and Iceland remain outside the mechanism’s scope.
The distinction is commercially significant for a region that depends heavily on imported primary aluminium. Eurostat recorded €29.5 billion in EU imports of aluminium and related products in 2024 across the broader HS Chapter 76 category. Canada, Mozambique, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are among the important suppliers of unwrought aluminium, although the trade value includes products that are not currently covered by CBAM and does not represent the mechanism’s taxable import base.
Norway and Iceland retain a regulatory exemption
Norway and Iceland benefit from a specific regulatory exclusion for originating products under CBAM. This is different from assigning imported aluminium a zero emissions factor: the exclusion concerns the mechanism’s treatment of the country of origin, not a determination that its smelters generate no emissions.
Electricity supply arrangements, production economics and commercial pricing remain relevant to Nordic producers’ competitiveness. The exemption provides a difference in regulatory treatment, but does not establish that every Norwegian or Icelandic aluminium product has a lower physical production cost or emissions profile than competing material.
For European buyers, the distinction can influence sourcing decisions where predictable compliance requirements and documentation are important considerations.
Canadian and Mozambican shipments fall after December surge
Import patterns changed sharply around the start of CBAM’s financial phase. According to Fastmarkets, EU imports of unwrought aluminium from Canada reached approximately 175,000 tonnes in December 2025, while deliveries from Mozambique totalled around 105,000 tonnes.
By January 2026, Canadian shipments had fallen to approximately 10,000 tonnes, while Mozambican deliveries approached zero. The scale of the reversal indicates a substantial response to import timing ahead of the new obligations, but does not establish that either supplier experienced a permanent loss of European market share.
The figures also need to be assessed against developments in physical supply. Industry reporting during 2026 highlighted operational pressures in certain African and Gulf aluminium supply chains, adding uncertainty around the availability and continuity of shipments.
European buyers must therefore evaluate smelter output, contractual reliability and freight costs alongside CBAM exposure. Changes in import volumes cannot be attributed exclusively to carbon regulation without accounting for other supply-side factors.
Direct emissions remain central to aluminium CBAM calculations
Although aluminium smelting is highly electricity-intensive, the current aluminium CBAM charge does not simply incorporate all indirect emissions associated with purchased electricity. The calculation instead focuses on the emissions covered by the applicable methodology, including relevant direct process emissions and specified upstream inputs.
Consequently, a hydro-powered smelter may have a strong broader environmental profile without that advantage automatically translating into a proportionate reduction in its current CBAM certificate obligation. Production route, process emissions and the treatment of covered precursor materials must be assessed separately.
For covered imports, access to reliable, verified actual emissions data is therefore commercially important. National averages alone may fail to distinguish an efficient individual facility from other producers operating in the same country.
Certificate prices and premiums influence purchasing decisions
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price reached €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. Buyers evaluating offers from covered suppliers need to establish the applicable benchmark-adjusted liability and determine whether the seller can provide verified actual emissions figures.
The certificate reference price is not a uniform surcharge on every tonne of aluminium. The final calculation depends on the applicable emissions values, benchmark adjustments and any qualifying deductions for carbon costs already paid abroad.
Physical aluminium premiums also influence the comparison between suppliers. Regulatory treatment, transport expenses, metal availability and contract terms can all affect the delivered price, making comparisons based solely on national emissions averages or quoted metal prices incomplete.
Sourcing strategies increasingly depend on supply security and compliance
Norwegian and Icelandic suppliers may become more attractive to buyers seeking regulatory simplicity and predictable documentation. However, the scale and specialised requirements of European aluminium demand mean that exempt origins cannot automatically replace all other sources.
Long-term purchasing decisions will continue to depend on the availability of suitable metal, production reliability, verified process emissions and the contractual allocation of carbon-related costs. These factors will shape competition between exempt suppliers and producers whose exports remain subject to CBAM.
