European steelmakers recorded a sharp decline in exports during the first half of 2026, with shipments falling across several major destinations as domestic demand remained largely stagnant.
EU steel exports fell 20% year on year in the first six months of 2026, according to industry association EUROFER. The contraction included a 29% decline in shipments to the United States, while exports to India, Turkey and China fell 24%, 21% and 18%, respectively.
The figures were published in EUROFER’s 1 October market outlook and leave European producers more reliant on the EU market at a time when demand growth remains limited.
Domestic steel demand shows little near-term growth
EUROFER expects apparent steel consumption in the European Union to increase by only 0.1% in 2026, before accelerating to 2.3% in 2027.
The weak market follows a decline in European production. EU crude-steel output fell 2.9% to 125.8 million tonnes in 2025, with production declining again during the first five months of 2026.
European mills are facing pressure from several directions. High energy costs, US tariffs and competition from Chinese steel have reduced their ability to compete in overseas markets, according to the Financial Times.
The export figures underline the distinction between measures designed to protect the EU market and the conditions affecting European producers when they sell into third countries.
CBAM addresses imports rather than export competitiveness
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) applies to the carbon content of covered goods imported into the EU. It does not automatically compensate European steel exporters for carbon costs incurred within the bloc.
CBAM also does not reduce electricity costs for European mills or remove tariffs imposed by foreign markets. The decline in exports therefore concerns a separate aspect of industrial competitiveness from the mechanism’s treatment of carbon-intensive imports.
Tighter controls on imports and CBAM may affect competitive conditions within the European market, but neither measure directly creates demand in external markets. European producers continue to face purchasing decisions by customers outside the bloc that are influenced by prices, tariffs and competing supply.
Export weakness affects capacity and investment decisions
Reduced overseas sales also affect the economics of steelmaking assets. Mills planning capacity and investment have less scope to absorb fixed costs when external orders weaken.
Protection from high-emission imports can alter conditions for producers selling within Europe, but it does not generate additional orders when customers defer purchases or select lower-priced alternatives.
The export decline therefore puts the focus on the ability of European steel producers to secure profitable sales both inside and outside the EU, while maintaining existing production assets and financing their replacement.
