The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The higher reference price adds to working-capital and hedging questions for companies importing goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) before certificate purchases begin.
The price was €75.36 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in the first quarter of 2026. CBAM certificate prices are derived from auction prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), connecting movements in the European carbon market with the eventual cost of industrial imports.
Importers incur CBAM obligations on goods imported during 2026, while purchases of certificates through the common central platform are scheduled to start in February 2027. The first annual CBAM declarations and certificate surrender are due by 30 September 2027, leaving companies to estimate liabilities before the final cash settlement.
The amount payable depends not only on the certificate price but also on import volumes, verified or default emissions, free-allocation adjustments and any eligible deduction for a carbon price paid abroad. Emissions may vary by installation or production batch even where metal purchase contracts specify tonnes. Cancellations, deferred deliveries or substitute supplies can also change projected certificate requirements.
An EU emissions allowance futures contract should not be treated as an exact hedge for a particular CBAM liability. EU ETS instruments may help manage the general carbon-price component, but differences in basis and timing, as well as calculation risks, mean a one-for-one position does not eliminate exposure. Treasury teams need to account for those mismatches.
For trade finance, banks should request regular reconciliation of imports and emissions rather than rely on a single carbon-cost estimate made at the start of a contract. Importers can combine quarterly forecasts, supplier verification, approved price assumptions and explicit pass-through clauses, while stress-testing high and low carbon-price scenarios, delayed documentation and changes in supply origin.
For large metals and fertiliser importers, the objective is to avoid an unexpected cash requirement in 2027 while retaining commercial flexibility to compete for customers during an uncertain industrial cycle. Companies must decide whether expected certificate costs should be reflected in sales prices, credit lines or commercial guarantees.
