Country-specific emissions defaults under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are creating different carbon cost benchmarks for aluminium imports from major producing regions, including India, the Gulf and southern Africa. For European buyers, the applicable default value can materially affect the indicative carbon exposure assigned to imported metal when verified installation-level data are unavailable.
The EU’s corrected 2026 CBAM default-value framework establishes emissions factors differentiated by country and product, covering primary and secondary aluminium as well as various semi-finished products. The values provide reference points for importers calculating embedded emissions under the mechanism.
For unwrought aluminium classified under CN code 7601, the 2026 default values, including the applicable 10% mark-up, are approximately 2.057 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per tonne for India, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The corresponding values are approximately 2.594 tonnes per tonne for South Africa and 3.518 tonnes per tonne for Mozambique.
Default emissions produce different indicative carbon values
Applying the EU’s third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price of €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, these emissions benchmarks translate into illustrative gross carbon values of approximately €169 per tonne of unwrought aluminium for India, the UAE and Bahrain, €214 per tonne for South Africa and €290 per tonne for Mozambique.
These calculations illustrate the differences between country-specific defaults rather than establish final CBAM payment obligations. The number of certificates actually required depends on free-allocation adjustments and other calculations prescribed by the applicable legislation.
Nevertheless, the comparison highlights the commercial consequences of using national emissions assumptions to assess imported aluminium. Buyers relying on defaults may assign different carbon exposure to suppliers even when individual production facilities perform better than the reference values applicable to their countries.
Verified installation data could change supplier assessments
The differences between national defaults strengthen the commercial incentive for aluminium producers to establish and independently verify actual installation-level emissions. Reliable production data can help demonstrate whether a facility’s emissions performance differs from the applicable default assumptions.
For European importers, this distinction is important when comparing suppliers and evaluating potential carbon liabilities. National reference values do not necessarily reflect the performance of every individual smelter or processing facility.
The implications extend to industrial financing and procurement. Banks and European buyers using country-level defaults as a proxy for individual factory performance risk overlooking differences between facilities. More precise emissions documentation can support assessments of actual production performance against the applicable CBAM methodology.
Electricity sourcing and direct emissions require separate assessments
Aluminium smelting is highly electricity-intensive, making access to hydropower, renewable generation and other low-carbon electricity sources important to overall production emissions. However, the current EU CBAM treatment of aluminium focuses on direct emissions, and indirect emissions associated with electricity consumption are not equivalent to an immediate CBAM charge on the product.
Consequently, a producer using hydropower does not automatically receive a corresponding reduction in its current CBAM liability solely because its electricity supply has a lower carbon intensity. Electricity sourcing can still affect production economics, corporate procurement standards and potential future regulatory exposure.
This distinction is relevant when evaluating aluminium investments and modernisation projects. Improvements in energy efficiency, process emissions, recycling and emissions monitoring can have different effects on a facility’s actual CBAM liability, depending on how each measure changes emissions recognised under the applicable calculation methodology.
Industrial investment increasingly depends on measurable emissions reductions
For aluminium producers seeking to strengthen their position in the European market, the key consideration is whether operational improvements can be demonstrated through emissions data that meet the relevant requirements.
Projects involving more efficient production, greater recycling and improved monitoring may contribute to different emissions outcomes, but their value under CBAM depends on the treatment of those emissions within the applicable rules. Low-carbon electricity alone does not establish a proportional reduction in the carbon liability calculated under the current framework.
For European buyers and financing institutions, distinguishing between overall environmental performance and emissions recognised under CBAM is therefore essential when comparing aluminium suppliers across India, the Gulf and southern Africa.
