European seaborne ammonia imports fell in the first quarter of 2026, with US deliveries recording the sharpest decline as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) added emissions-related costs to sourcing decisions in the fertiliser market.
The EU imported approximately 717,000 tonnes of seaborne ammonia between January and March 2026, down from 787,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Platts. Shipments from the United States decreased by 56%, reaching around 40,000 tonnes, compared with 90,000 tonnes in the previous quarter.
Algeria supplied approximately 30% of EU seaborne ammonia imports during the first three months of 2026. Traders pointed to concerns over the relatively high carbon intensity values applied to US ammonia under the EU’s carbon border framework.
CBAM emissions values influence ammonia sourcing
The shift in import flows highlights the growing relevance of emissions accounting in commodity procurement, even before importers begin purchasing CBAM certificates in February 2027. The emissions values assigned to imported ammonia are becoming an additional consideration when European buyers assess competing suppliers.
Ammonia production is closely connected to natural gas prices and the carbon intensity of hydrogen production. Conventional production facilities use natural gas both as a feedstock and as an energy source, generating substantial process emissions.
For European importers, the assessment increasingly involves the emissions associated with production, the applicable default values and the availability of verified actual emissions data from suppliers. Where default values exceed a producer’s actual emissions performance, appropriate verification can improve the producer’s commercial position.
Installation-level verification becomes commercially relevant
The treatment of emissions data creates an incentive for US and other international ammonia suppliers to develop installation-level emissions monitoring systems rather than depend on national or product-level default values.
The ability to provide independently verified actual emissions figures could become an important factor in securing European customers. Producers with lower actual emissions than the applicable defaults may be able to demonstrate a more favourable emissions profile through the relevant verification process.
The longer-term commercial opportunity lies with suppliers capable of combining competitive natural gas costs or low-carbon hydrogen with independently verified emissions data. Such producers may be better positioned to compete for European offtake contracts as carbon pricing assumes a greater role in ammonia trade.
Fertiliser production faces additional procurement pressures
Ammonia is a major input in the production of nitrogen fertilisers, linking changes in international ammonia sourcing to manufacturing costs and procurement strategies throughout the agricultural supply chain.
For European fertiliser producers, shifts in supplier availability and the carbon-related treatment of imported ammonia add another consideration to purchasing decisions. Agricultural buyers may also be exposed to the resulting cost changes through fertiliser supply chains.
However, CBAM is not the sole factor influencing ammonia trade. Natural gas prices, shipping costs, supply disruptions in the Middle East and fertiliser demand also affect international flows. The decline in EU imports during the first quarter of 2026 therefore cannot be attributed exclusively to carbon border charges.
For fertiliser manufacturers and agricultural buyers, carbon compliance is emerging as an additional potential source of price volatility in a market already exposed to energy-price fluctuations and geopolitical disruptions.
