European Union emissions allowance auction prices put the provisional fourth-quarter Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) benchmark at €86.14 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent on 2 November, pointing to higher costs for covered imports. The figure, based on auction prices available that day, was approximately 4.6% above the European Commission’s official third-quarter CBAM certificate price, adding uncertainty to industrial purchasing and financial planning before certificate sales begin in 2027.
The provisional average was €3.82/tCO₂e above the third-quarter price of €82.32/tCO₂e. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) primary auction clearing price reached €89.43/tCO₂e on 2 November, higher than the fourth-quarter average recorded so far. The European Commission is scheduled to publish the official fourth-quarter figure on 4 January 2027; until then, auction prices indicate upward pressure but do not establish the final price.
During 2026, CBAM certificate prices are calculated quarterly from the volume-weighted average of relevant EU ETS auction results; weekly pricing begins in 2027. Covered imports include iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. Financial effects differ substantially by sector and production process. The current signal is a higher provisional carbon-price trajectory, not a newly adopted certificate price or a change to CBAM calculation rules.
For a product with one tonne of chargeable embedded CO₂, a €3.82/tCO₂e price increase would amount to about €3.82 per tonne of product before other adjustments. A product’s chargeable exposure cannot be inferred from an installation’s gross emissions alone: free-allocation adjustments, product benchmarks and eligible carbon-price deductions can materially reduce the certificate requirement.
For steel and aluminium suppliers in Serbia and Montenegro, the price trend strengthens the case for reliable actual-emissions information rather than unfavourable default values where more accurate data are permitted. Electricity exporters’ exposure depends on the applicable emissions methodology and their eligibility to use actual emissions. European industrial customers may revise purchasing prices, add carbon-price adjustment clauses or require suppliers to share emissions-related costs. Banks financing importers and industrial traders face potential additional working-capital exposure once certificate purchasing begins.
