China was the largest origin by value for European Union trade in goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2025, with supplies worth 17.09 billion euros. Eurostat-based calculations show Türkiye led by mass, supplying 14.81 million tonnes, despite its CBAM-code trade being valued at 10.83 billion euros.
Britain recorded 7.28 billion euros in CBAM-code trade, followed by India with 5.30 billion euros and Russia with 4.89 billion euros, according to the calculations. The gap between the leaders by value and volume shows that a country ranking alone can obscure differences in product mix, metal prices and industrial structure.
Norway and Switzerland also featured as large origins in trade statistics, but their goods are exempt under the relevant CBAM origin provisions. China is a major supplier of steel and aluminium, while Türkiye combines significant steel volumes with aluminium and cement. Egypt is prominent in fertilisers, and the Western Balkans are especially consequential for electricity connections with neighbouring EU markets.
Recorded trade value should not be treated as equivalent to financial liability under CBAM, since that risks overstating the addressable compliance market and does not distinguish more carbon-intensive product streams. A supplier’s commercial opportunity depends on the product code, installation technology, embedded emissions and delivery reliability, rather than national totals alone.
For EU importers, supplier assessment is an industrial procurement stress test: delivered product prices must be compared with carbon-certificate costs after statutory adjustments, transport, tariff treatment and quality requirements. A foreign plant with higher invoiced prices but verified low emissions can be competitive against a cheaper producer assessed using unfavourable default values. Weak emissions evidence can also create administrative risk even when production is relatively clean.
Cross-border industrial groups need to account for materials imported into one EU country and incorporated into products made in another. To identify commercial advantages under CBAM, trade corridors should be tracked from the non-EU installation to the EU importer and onward processing plant, rather than reduced to an origin-destination pair.
