China and Indonesia expanded their steel shipments to the European Union in the first half of 2026, contrasting with declining deliveries from several established suppliers. The shifts occurred as European steel demand remained weak and import competition was shaped by carbon pricing, safeguard quotas and changes in manufacturing activity.
According to EUROFER, total EU steel imports fell 5% year on year to approximately 34 million tonnes during the first six months of 2026. Imports of finished steel declined by 3%, although the overall figures concealed substantial differences between individual supplying countries.
Deliveries from Indonesia rose 70%, while shipments from China increased 40%. In contrast, imports from Türkiye decreased 16% and those from South Korea fell 8%.
Türkiye remained the largest supplier of finished steel to the EU, accounting for 15.7% of import volumes. China followed with 12.3%, South Korea represented 12%, Indonesia accounted for 8.8%, and India supplied 7.7%.
Import quotas and CBAM reshape purchasing decisions
The changes in supplier rankings do not, by themselves, demonstrate that CBAM has redirected European steel trade. EU importers brought forward purchases ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, which began on 1 January 2026. Inventory movements and safeguard quota openings also influenced procurement, particularly for hot-rolled coil.
From July 2026, a separate EU steel regulation further restricted tariff-free import access to approximately 18.3 million tonnes annually and increased the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. These measures directly affect the cost of imported steel, independently of the carbon liabilities arising under CBAM.
The combined effect of carbon pricing and trade restrictions means that import competitiveness cannot be assessed solely through changes in shipment volumes. Quota availability and applicable tariffs influence landed costs alongside the emissions-related obligations attached to covered products.
Product categories reveal different trade patterns
The distribution of imports across steel products also complicates comparisons between national suppliers. Imports of hot-rolled wide strip increased 14% in the first half of 2026, while deliveries of cold-rolled sheet, sections and several long steel products declined.
Consequently, a supplier can increase its share of finished-steel imports by expanding deliveries of flat steel while losing ground in construction-related products. Broad customs statistics covering HS 72 should therefore not be treated as directly equivalent to EUROFER’s finished-product import volumes when assessing market shares.
The composition of shipments matters for evaluating the competitive position of individual countries and producers. Aggregate figures can conceal differences between product segments experiencing rising imports and those facing declining demand.
Country-specific emissions data determine CBAM exposure
CBAM introduces another layer of differentiation between suppliers. The European Commission’s default emissions factors vary by product and country, while producers can seek to replace default values with verified, installation-specific emissions data.
The certificate reference price also changed during 2026. The third-quarter reference price reached €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, up from €75.28 in the second quarter.
However, the reference price alone does not establish the final CBAM cost per tonne of imported steel. Applicable benchmark deductions and carbon prices already paid in the country of production also affect the amount due. The certificate price should therefore not be interpreted as a uniform surcharge applied to every tonne of steel.
Importers weigh tariff access, emissions verification and financing risks
European steel buyers must assess whether shipments can enter within the available tariff quotas, whether the accompanying emissions documentation can withstand verification, and whether the purchase price adequately compensates for both trade and carbon-related risks.
For banks financing steel inventories, delivery delays and uncertainty over emissions data can be as consequential as the apparent price advantage of imported material over domestically produced steel.
Developments in the second half of 2026 will show whether the gains recorded by China and Indonesia continue after year-end inventory effects unwind and tighter import quotas take effect. Sustained growth would indicate that the changing competitive position of these suppliers extends beyond purchases brought forward ahead of CBAM’s financial phase.
