European aluminium imports surged ahead of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s financial phase, followed by a sharp contraction in early 2026. The shift has complicated assessments of underlying demand and delayed the full impact of carbon-related costs on manufacturers purchasing imported metal.
According to Fastmarkets, EU imports of unwrought aluminium from origins subject to CBAM, excluding exempt countries, reached approximately 675,000 tonnes in December 2025. This was more than twice the typical monthly import volume of around 280,000–360,000 tonnes.
Imports subsequently dropped 79% to 143,000 tonnes in January 2026, before recovering slightly to 183,000 tonnes in February. The scale of the reversal exceeded normal seasonal trading patterns and was concentrated among countries exposed to CBAM default emissions values.
Shipments from major suppliers fall sharply
The changes were particularly pronounced among several major suppliers. Canadian deliveries reached approximately 175,000 tonnes in December 2025, but fell to around 10,000 tonnes in January 2026.
Mozambique supplied approximately 105,000 tonnes in December, with volumes falling to near zero the following month. Shipments from Bahrain declined from roughly 85,000 tonnes to 19,000 tonnes over the same period.
Norwegian and Icelandic aluminium, which falls outside CBAM’s scope because of the countries’ regulatory status, did not follow the same pattern.
The figures provide strong evidence of import front-loading ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, although they do not establish that underlying end-user demand disappeared. Aluminium imported and cleared through customs before the new liability applied can remain in storage and enter manufacturing supply chains months later.
Pre-2026 inventories delay carbon-cost transmission
The timing of imports creates an important distinction for aluminium buyers and distributors. Metal cleared before the relevant effective date avoided the new CBAM liability associated with subsequent imports, while replacement shipments entering during 2026 are subject to the applicable rules.
Importers must therefore distinguish between existing inventories acquired before the new obligations applied and metal imported afterwards when calculating realised margins and future purchasing costs.
The inventory buffer can temporarily delay the transmission of carbon-related costs through the supply chain. Manufacturers may continue consuming lower-cost stocks even as the cost of replenishment cargoes rises under the new regime.
Physical premiums reflect more than CBAM
The effect on physical aluminium premiums has so far been uneven. Fastmarkets identified only a moderate increase immediately after CBAM began, consistent with the availability of inventories accumulated before the end of 2025.
However, physical premiums also respond to smelter outages, transport expenses, electricity costs, sanctions, regional demand and the availability of metal. An increase in a duty-paid premium therefore cannot automatically be attributed entirely to CBAM.
The relationship between import costs and selling prices will depend on how quickly existing stocks are consumed and how replacement shipments are priced. Differences between inventory acquisition costs and replenishment costs may become increasingly important for distributors and downstream manufacturers.
CBAM certificate prices and aluminium emissions rules
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price rose to €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, compared with €75.28 in the second quarter.
For aluminium, the current CBAM framework primarily addresses direct embedded emissions, alongside specific rules governing precursor materials. Indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not currently charged under the aluminium mechanism in the same way as direct emissions.
The final liability also depends on the applicable benchmark adjustments and permitted deductions for carbon prices paid abroad. The quarterly certificate reference price alone is therefore insufficient to calculate the full carbon cost of a shipment.
Manufacturers face risks as lower-cost stocks run down
Downstream manufacturers may face delayed cost increases as pre-2026 inventories are exhausted. Purchasing contracts negotiated around lower-cost existing stocks could reach maturity when new deliveries carrying CBAM liabilities are required.
Distributors that have committed to fixed selling prices without provisions to recover verified carbon-related costs may experience pressure on their margins as replenishment expenses increase.
The development of import volumes, warehouse inventories and the origin of replacement shipments will help establish whether the December 2025 surge primarily shifted purchases between reporting periods or contributed to a longer-term restructuring of European aluminium sourcing.
