International certification companies are entering the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) verification market as industrial exporters and electricity suppliers prepare for the first annual compliance cycle. Alongside accredited verification, demand is emerging for engineering, emissions monitoring and technical documentation services across Serbia and the wider Western Balkans.
The mechanism entered its definitive phase in January 2026, covering imports of electricity, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen. For non-EU producers, compliance requires more than obtaining a verification report: companies must establish reliable emissions-monitoring systems, trace raw materials and precursors, reconcile production and energy data, and provide evidence that EU customers and accredited verifiers can assess.
This is creating two distinct areas of commercial activity: formal independent verification by accredited bodies and supporting services covering factory-level emissions data, technical preparation, pre-verification and importer-side evidence management.
International certification groups secure initial CBAM accreditations
Among the companies to secure CBAM verification accreditation are RINA Services, Bureau Veritas Italia and SGS ICS Italia, whose approvals were confirmed by Italy’s accreditation body, Accredia, in early October 2026.
Greece-based EMICERT also announced its CBAM accreditation in September, adding another specialist provider to the developing market.
The scope of these approvals differs. RINA’s Italian accreditation includes the specific activity group covering electricity imported into the EU, whereas the initial Italian accreditations of Bureau Veritas and SGS cover other CBAM verification activities. Accreditation for industrial emissions does not automatically authorise a company to verify electricity imports.
Other established certification and assurance groups have relevant industrial emissions expertise and may compete as accreditation coverage expands. Their eligibility for individual CBAM assignments depends on the precise accreditation held by the legal entity responsible for the work.
The initial approvals indicate that the formal verification market is moving from regulatory preparation towards commercial activity. However, a comprehensive picture of available verification capacity, pricing and market shares has yet to emerge.
CBAM compliance services could reach €400 million by 2032
The commercial market surrounding CBAM extends beyond fees earned by accredited verifiers. It also encompasses emissions software, advisory services, verification infrastructure and supplier compliance platforms.
Research published by Policy2050 in March 2026 estimated the global CBAM compliance ecosystem at approximately €100 million in 2026, with potential growth to around €400 million by 2032, expressed in approximate euro equivalents. This is a commercial market estimate, not an official European Commission forecast.
Actual revenues from accredited verification remain difficult to determine because the first verification cycle under the definitive regime is only beginning.
One hypothetical calculation illustrates the potential scale of the professional-services segment: 3,000 installations paying an average annual verification fee of €15,000 would generate approximately €45 million in annual revenues. These figures are illustrative and do not represent a forecast of installation numbers or actual fee levels.
CBAM certificate payments must be distinguished from these service revenues. Carbon liabilities paid by importers are not income for verification companies.
The size of the available services market will depend on the number of non-EU installations using verified actual emissions instead of default values, the complexity of their production processes and the number of EU importers requiring supporting documentation.
Western Balkan electricity trade faces additional evidence requirements
Southeast Europe represents an important market for CBAM-related technical services because electricity exports and energy-intensive manufacturing face exposure to EU carbon costs.
The Energy Community Secretariat reported that commercially scheduled electricity exchanges across EU–Western Balkan borders fell by 25% in the first quarter of 2026, even though wholesale electricity prices in non-EU markets averaged approximately €30/MWh below neighbouring EU markets.
CBAM-related costs and difficulties demonstrating eligibility for actual-emissions treatment have contributed to weaker cross-border trading economics.
The challenge is particularly relevant to regional electricity exporters selling renewable power through intermediaries or complex cross-border arrangements. EU verification requirements link electricity generation to physical power purchase agreements, transmission conditions, accepted hourly nominations and the authorised EU declarant.
Steel and aluminium producers face different technical requirements, including installation-level emissions, production routes, fuel consumption, mass and energy balances, materials allocation and emissions from qualifying precursor inputs.
Manufacturers processing imported steel billets, slabs, aluminium inputs and other relevant materials must trace the emissions associated with upstream production into their covered products. These requirements create demand for engineering-led evidence preparation before formal verification begins.
Clarion.Engineer develops factory-level CBAM evidence services
Belgrade-based Clarion.Engineer is positioning itself as a specialist engineering provider in Southeast Europe, focusing on CBAM-ready evidence for electricity, steel and aluminium exports. Its services include technical preparation conducted at production facilities on behalf of EU importers.
Through its CBAM.Clarion.Engineer platform, the company has developed methodologies covering industrial monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV), electricity traceability, precursor-data management, factory-level pre-verification and preparation of documentation for accredited verifiers.
Its operating model serves two related markets. The first supports Southeast European exporters, renewable electricity producers and traders preparing emissions evidence before their products or electricity enter the EU market.
The second involves on-site technical services commissioned by EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants at production facilities operated by their non-EU suppliers.
Under this importer-side model, specialists examine production boundaries, metering systems, energy consumption, manufacturing records, qualifying precursor inputs, emissions calculations and the documentation connecting production activities to specific shipments.
The objective is to identify deficiencies while production and supporting records are still accessible, rather than waiting until annual verification, when missing information may be difficult or impossible to reconstruct.
Electricity and metals require different technical evidence
For electricity producers and traders, Clarion.Engineer’s methodology covers generation metering, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) records, physical power purchase agreement assessments, contractual allocation and reconciliation of cross-border electricity deliveries.
For steel and aluminium exporters, the focus includes factory emissions, production-route mapping, materials balances, upstream precursor information and the controlled transfer of data to EU buyers.
The company has also developed a CBAM Verified Electricity Playbook and established a knowledge partnership with Serbia’s renewable energy association, OIE Serbia, aimed at improving practical understanding of electricity documentation and verification requirements.
Clarion operates in the evidence-preparation and pre-verification segment. Its activities are distinct from formal independent verification, which must be performed by an appropriately accredited body.
The separation of responsibilities is important as engineering specialists and international certification companies develop complementary services. Technical preparation can improve the quality of submitted evidence, but it cannot replace the independent verification conclusion.
EU importers may commission ongoing supplier monitoring
Commercial demand could shift from exporters purchasing one-off compliance assessments towards EU importers commissioning continuous evidence-control services at suppliers’ production facilities.
Importers carry the formal CBAM declaration and certificate obligations, while much of the information required to support those obligations originates outside the EU. Buyers of steel, aluminium and electricity may therefore require suppliers to follow monitoring protocols, permit technical inspections, provide data access and implement corrective actions as conditions of commercial contracts.
This creates opportunities for regional engineering companies able to provide local technical teams, factory inspections and regular reconciliation of emissions and production data.
International accredited verification groups could work alongside these specialists, provided that the respective responsibilities remain clearly separated and applicable independence and impartiality requirements are respected.
The resulting services market encompasses several distinct activities: formal verification, technical consultancy, installation preparation, emissions-data management, software and professional training. Their commercial development will depend on the compliance needs of importers and suppliers as the first annual verification cycle approaches.
First verification reports expected from January 2027
The first verification reports covering 2026 imports are expected from January 2027, ahead of the first annual CBAM declaration deadline on 30 September 2027.
As EU buyers assess supplier readiness, demand for technical preparation is expected to strengthen around emissions documentation, default-value exposure, missing data and the consequences of unsuccessful verification. These issues may also influence contractual arrangements between importers and suppliers.
For Southeast Europe’s electricity, steel and aluminium industries, the distinction is increasingly between conventional production and environmental records and documentation capable of supporting independent, installation-level emissions verification.
International certification companies compete to provide accredited confirmation of emissions, while regional engineering specialists develop the data, equipment records and production controls needed to support that process.
For exporters and EU importers, establishing a reliable evidence trail before production and delivery becomes central to preparing for formal verification and the associated CBAM obligations.
