Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary increased 111% year on year in the second quarter, while power flows across other Western Balkan corridors moved in different directions as carbon costs and wider market conditions affected export economics.
The Energy Community’s Q2 monitoring report recorded a 19% recovery in scheduled exports from Montenegro to Italy. At the same time, North Macedonia’s exports to Greece declined 78%, while scheduled electricity flows in the opposite direction, from Greece to North Macedonia, rose by around 70%.
Albania’s exports to Greece remained broadly stable, increasing by approximately 3%.
Hungary emerges as a stronger corridor for Serbian power
The report identifies Ukraine’s electricity import requirements and Hungary’s position as a regional hub as possible factors behind the stronger Serbia-Hungary corridor.
The Energy Community cautions that transit flows cannot be separately quantified from the aggregate scheduled electricity exchanges recorded in the data.
The Q2 residual price difference was approximately €27/MWh between Montenegro and Italy and €13/MWh between Serbia and Hungary. These price spreads need to be assessed together with applicable carbon exposure and trading costs when evaluating the economics of cross-border power transactions.
Export routes reflect different market conditions
The changes in scheduled flows indicate a redistribution of commercial electricity trade across individual corridors rather than a uniform reduction in exports to EU markets.
The reported movements cannot be attributed to CBAM alone. Hydrology, generation availability and broader electricity market conditions also remain material factors affecting regional power flows.
For investors and traders, the data points to differences between individual export corridors. Regional averages do not capture the distinct commercial conditions shaping specific routes, where electricity prices, carbon exposure and trading costs can produce different margins.
