The European Union’s aluminium import market highlights a central challenge in assessing the trade effects of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): some major trading partners benefit from origin-based exemptions, while others supply diverse products whose customs values alone reveal little about their embedded carbon emissions.
According to Eurostat’s analysis published on March 26, 2025, EU imports of aluminium and articles thereof under HS Chapter 76 reached €29.5 billion in 2024, compared with exports of €18.4 billion, producing a trade deficit of €11.1 billion. These figures cover a broad range of aluminium products rather than only goods classified under CBAM’s specific product codes, but they illustrate the EU’s reliance on imported metal and fabricated goods.
On a 2024 import-value basis, Norway was the largest supplier, accounting for €4.4 billion, or 15.0% of the total. China followed with €3.9 billion (13.1%), Türkiye with €2.8 billion (9.4%), Iceland with €2.1 billion (7.3%) and Switzerland with €1.7 billion (5.8%). Together, these five countries represented approximately 50.6% of the import value recorded under Chapter 76. These percentages measure trade value, not physical volumes or the market’s actual CBAM exposure in 2026.
Origin-based exemptions change the exposure picture
Goods originating in Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland are exempt from CBAM under the applicable EU rules, reflecting their relevant emissions-trading arrangements. Consequently, the import shares of Norway, Iceland and Switzerland have a different significance for potential certificate liabilities than those of China or Türkiye.
The distinction depends on legally established non-preferential origin. Simply routing goods through an exempt territory does not automatically confer exempt status.
Product classification is equally important. CN 76011010 covers slabs of unwrought non-alloy aluminium, CN 76011090 covers other unwrought non-alloy aluminium, and CN 76012080 covers certain unwrought aluminium alloys. These classifications provide a more precise basis for trade analysis than aggregate Chapter 76 statistics. Downstream products, including sheet, foil, extrusions and other fabricated articles, require separate classification and production-route assessments. Certain scrap categories are excluded or treated differently, particularly under proposed reforms.
Higher import values do not necessarily indicate higher volumes
Eurostat’s comparison of 2019 and 2024 found that the value of EU aluminium imports increased by 29.9%, while their physical weight declined by 6.2%. The divergence demonstrates why higher customs values cannot automatically be interpreted as growth in imported tonnage.
Global aluminium prices, product composition, exchange rates and trading conditions can increase aggregate import values without corresponding increases in physical volumes. Customs unit values expressed in euros per tonne are therefore meaningful only when calculated for sufficiently comparable product categories.
Matched CN8 data are needed to measure market changes
Eurostat’s general merchandise-trade release of October 16, 2026, covering August, reported overall extra-EU imports but did not provide the detailed aluminium country-share matrix required to establish the sector’s latest monthly movements.
A robust assessment would compare August 2026 with both July 2026 and August 2025, using the same CN8 product selection for each period. Country-level shares should be calculated separately by physical weight and customs value, while implied customs unit prices should be examined for differences in grade and product composition.
Without those matched data, monthly changes in aluminium import shares cannot be established reliably from aggregate trade figures.
For imports from covered origins, the published CBAM certificate price for the third quarter of 2026 was €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. However, a supplier’s actual cost position also depends on the goods’ embedded emissions, the applicable free-allocation adjustment and any qualifying carbon price paid in the country of origin. A supplier with lower verified emissions may therefore offer a more competitive overall position despite charging a higher invoice price, provided the comparison concerns equivalent goods and comparable production conditions.
Proposed downstream expansion could change future exposure
The EU’s proposed expansion of CBAM to additional downstream products in 2028 remains subject to negotiations. The European Parliament has supported lowering the aluminium threshold from 50 tonnes to five tonnes and widening the scope of coverage, while other institutions have advanced their own positions.
The final provisions will determine which fabricated aluminium products become subject to additional compliance obligations. Assessments must therefore examine the relevant CN classifications against both the existing framework and proposed amendments before estimating the proportion of the market that could become newly exposed.
Eurostat’s 2024 partner structure illustrates the importance of this distinction. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland together represented 28.1% of HS Chapter 76 import value. This does not establish that 28.1% of CBAM-covered aluminium imports are exempt, because Chapter 76 includes products outside the precise CBAM scope and legally determined origin may differ between transactions. Nevertheless, the figure shows why headline statistics for imports from non-EU suppliers are insufficient for forecasting certificate liabilities.
The 2019–2024 comparison reinforces the need to separate product groups. Higher customs values alongside lower physical weight indicate a material change in prices, product mix or both, but the aggregate figures cannot distinguish between global aluminium price movements and a shift towards higher-value fabricated products. A more useful analysis would examine unwrought aluminium grades, sheet, extrusions and structures separately, comparing equivalent periods and partner-country profiles.
For buyers in Germany, Italy and Austria, and exporters in Serbia and the wider Western Balkans, this creates a more differentiated supplier landscape. Relevant distinctions include exempt origin, verified low-carbon production, higher-emission covered production and downstream products whose future CBAM status remains uncertain.
The available broad-market statistics establish the EU’s dependence on imported aluminium products, but they do not demonstrate that CBAM has already redistributed aluminium market shares. Establishing such an effect requires product-level trade data, verified emissions information and a clear distinction between existing obligations and proposed future coverage.
